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News of the Institute

Ukraine’s readiness for the European Green Deal was discussed, and the climate resilience project was presented in Kyiv

On 4 October 2024, Kyiv hosted events in a hybrid format (offline and online) that were significant for Ukraine and the Eastern Partnership countries – the presentation of the “EU4ClimateResilience” project and the national conference “PROGRESS: Promoting Readiness for the Green Deal in the Eastern Partnership Countries”, which was attended, among others, by researchers from the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, a co-organising institution. The Institute is a member of the consortium of organisations implementing the international project PROGRESS (Promoting Green Deal Readiness in the Eastern Partnership Countries) in Ukraine together with the German Society for International Cooperation (Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit – GIZ) and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development – OECD). The European Business Association of Moldova and REC Caucasus (Regional Environmental Centre for the Caucasus) are also involved in the implementation of the international PROGRESS project. The PROGRESS project involves many specialists of the Institute – employees of the sectoral markets sector and the fuel and energy complex development forecasting sector of the Department of sectoral forecasts and market conditions, the Department of forms and methods of management in the agricultural and food complex, and the Department of monetary relations. The head of the group of experts from the Institute is Oleksandr Diachuk, PhD (Engin.), a leading researcher of the fuel and energy complex development forecasting sector of the Department of sectoral forecasts and market conditions.

The event brought together more than one and a half hundred leading researchers, experts, representatives of Ukrainian and German government agencies, business and the public to discuss important issues of climate change adaptation and resilience to environmental challenges. Participants gained valuable knowledge about climate change adaptation in agriculture and agroprocessing sectors, including exports to the European Union. Particular attention was paid to the cultivation, processing, storage and transportation of fruit and berry products, as well as the exchange of knowledge on best practices and solutions for implementing the European Green Deal policies and measures in Ukraine.

The regional PROGRESS project, funded by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Nuclear Safety and Consumer Protection (Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz, nukleare Sicherheit und Verbraucherschutz – BMUV) within the framework of the International Climate Initiative (Internationale Klimaschutzinitiative – IKI), is focused on preparing the Eastern Partnership countries (including Ukraine) for the European Green Deal. It is aimed at adapting agriculture and other sectors of the economy to climate change and new environmental requirements. All this will contribute to the recovery and sustainable development of Ukraine.

Remi Duflot, Chargé d’affaires a.i. of the EU Delegation to Ukraine

The event was welcomed by Viktoriia Kyrieieva, Deputy Minister of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources of Ukraine, Oleksiy Pinchuk, Director of the Department for international cooperation and European integration of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, Remi Duflot, Chargé d’affaires a.i. of the EU Delegation to Ukraine, Lea Bigot of BMUV, and Martina Kolb, Programme Director of the PROGRESS project.

During the event, the participants presented the main tasks and goals of the EU4ClimateResilience project, which is part of the PROGRESS project and supports the Eastern Partnership countries in improving their climate policies to achieve mitigation and adaptation goals and tasks in line with the Paris Agreement and related bilateral agreements with the European Union. According to the conference programme, panel discussions on adaptation and resilience to climate change took place; successful environmental practices were presented, and the European Union’s best practices for Ukrainian horticulture, as well as tools and sources of environmental financing and a roadmap were discussed.

Representatives of the PROGRESS project partners in Ukraine – OECD, GIZ and the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine – made speeches at the panel discussions. In particular, the Academy’s scientists reported on: the current state and prospects for the production, processing and export of fruit and berry products in Ukraine in the context of climate change; green financing, including national policy, in the context of climate change adaptation in horticulture and agriculture in Ukraine; ways to improve Ukraine’s regulatory framework in view of integration into the European Union and the joint implementation of the European Green Deal.

The Ukrainian GIZ office was represented by Dmytro Berezovskyy, head of the PROGRESS project in Ukraine, who told about the selected horticultural value chains, their SWOT analysis and areas of government intervention needed to strengthen the capacity of fruit and berry growing to withstand climate change, and Artem Sadomov, Advisor to the PROGRESS project in Ukraine, who presented an assessment of the needs and areas of training capacity building for industry representatives, including higher education and research institutions.

Krzysztof Michalak, senior programme manager of the OECD, focused on the current climate and environmental policies of OECD member states and stressed the need to bring the relevant Ukrainian policies closer to EU and OECD standards. OECD policy and finance analysts Olga Olson and Isabella Neuweg presented reports on the illegal use of pesticides worldwide, agricultural insurance, and some instruments and sources of green finance in the EU and OECD.

Oleksandr Diachuk, PhD (Engin.)

Oleksandr Diachuk, PhD (Engin.), head of the PROGRESS project team from the Institute for Economic Research and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, presented the analysis on the cultivation of fruits, berries and nuts in Ukraine, the concentration of their production, processing volumes and the structure of fruit and berry exports. The researcher highlighted challenges for the cultivation, processing and export of fruit and berry products, primarily due to russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine. These include the destruction of energy and production infrastructure, logistics problems, and labour shortages. In addition, Oleksandr Diachuk addressed the topic of gender equality within the management structures of fruit and berry companies in Ukraine, providing insightful recommendations for improvement in this area.

Yevhen Bublyk, Doctor of Economics

Yevhen Bublyk, Doctor of Economics, key green finance expert of the PROGRESS project in Ukraine, head of the Department of monetary relations of the Institute for Economic Research and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, addressed the practical roles of the state, banks, and international financial organizations in green finance in Ukraine. He also outlined the main challenges in the capital market, including the lack of accredited external verifiers of green bonds in Ukraine.

Olena Shubravska, Doctor of Economics, professor, key policy expert of the PROGRESS project in Ukraine, head of the Department of forms and methods of management in the agri-food complex of the Institute of Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, compared the legal frameworks of Ukraine and the European Union in the context of the European Green Deal. In her report, the researcher noted EU-normed rules regarding the decarbonization of agriculture and adaptation to climate change and outlined the existing laws, programs, and strategies in Ukraine, as well as those that still need to be developed or implemented.

Olena Shubravska, Doctor of Economics, professor and Yuliia Shapoval, PhD in Economics

Yuliia Shapoval, PhD in Economics, senior green finance expert of the PROGRESS project in Ukraine, senior researcher of the Department of monetary relations of the Institute of Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, overviewed the state policy of green finance in Ukraine. She highlighted the actions taken by the National Securities and Stock Market Commission and the National Bank of Ukraine to develop green financial instruments and pointed out the European experience in establishing green finance infrastructure, particularly the role of green taxonomy (a list of activities that contribute to sustainable development).

The panel discussions were also joined by representatives of local governments (in particular, Roman Sushchenko, first deputy head of the Cherkasy regional council and Volodymyr Kohut, deputy head of the Poltava regional military administration), educational institutions and research institutions (in particular, Serhii Kvasha, academician of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine (NAAS), vice-rector for scientific and pedagogical work of the National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine and Hanna Tkalenko, Doctor of Agricultural Sciences, deputy director of the Institute of Plant Protection of NAAS), financial organisations (in particular, Kristina Mikulova, head of Regional Hub for Eastern Europe at European Investment Bank), Ukrainian financial institutions, specialised associations, advisory services, consulting companies, various non-governmental organisations in the field of climate change mitigation and adaptation, etc.

Information on the NAS of Ukraine website

Announcement

Academic readings

«SCIENTIFIC LEGACY OF IWAN S. KOROPECKYJ:A KEY TO UNDERSTANDING THE ECONOMIC HISTORY AND DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS OF UKRAINE»

On November 12, 2024 at the State Organization «Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine» academic readings titled «THE SCIENTIFIC LEGACY OF IWAN S. KOROPECKYJ: A KEY TO UNDERSTANDING THE ECONOMIC HISTORY AND DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS OF UKRAINE» will take place (in the format of a Zoom meeting).

I.-S. Koropeckyj

The purpose of the readings is to explore and update the scientific heritage of I.-S. Koropeckyj (1921–2012) as an economist, historian, and researcher of economic systems in the context of current issues in economic science and the modern challenges of ensuring Ukraine’s economic stability. It also aims to facilitate the exchange of scientific perspectives on the development of international economic relations and Ukraine’s position in the global economy.

Co-organizers of the Conference:

  • SO «Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine» (Department of Economic History);
  • All-Ukrainian Public Organization «Ukrainian Association of International Economics».

Topics for presentations and discussions:

  1. I.-S. Koropeckyj – an outstanding representative of the Ukrainian scientific diaspora
  2. Comparative analysis of economic systems in the works of I.-S. Koropeckyj
  3. I.-S. Koropeckyj’s contribution to the development of historical and economic science
  4. Analysis and evaluation of Ukrainian economic thought in I.-S. Koropeckyj’s works
  5. The theory of production allocation and its contemporary significance for solving spatial development issues in Ukraine’s economy
  6. Analysis of Soviet structural policy and its long-term consequences based on Koropeckyj’s methodology
  7. I.-S. Koropeckyj on the preconditions and prospects for market reforms in Ukraine
  8. Ukraine in the system of international economic relations: past and present
  9. Global economic development trends and Ukraine’s prospects

To participate in the academic readings, please submit your application by November 8, 2024 (via the electronic form at the following link: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSf9zUMDh_6h3wxv_-BUEco0L7njLOw_T9X3mQz1mZG_7xMdsA/viewform?vc=0&c=0&w=1&flr=0) and prepare a thesis for publication (a sample format is provided in the information letter).

INFORMATION LETTER

Discussion scientific platform at the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine. Session 5: Revenue generation potential

On August 21, 2024, the 5th meeting of the discussion scientific platform under the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine was held, which was joined by more than 60 participants from specialized organizations and scientific institutions involved in the development and implementation of effective management solutions to key challenges of today – Institute for economics and forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Institute for Demography and Quality of Life Problems of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Institute of industrial economics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.

Report by I. Lunina

The research “Lack of budgetary resources and reserves for increasing revenues of the State Budget of Ukraine” was presented by Inna Lunina, Head of the Department of Public Finance of the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Doctor of Economics, Professor, Corresponding Member of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. The study found that the priority areas for increasing tax revenues are measures to broaden the tax base and reduce budget revenue losses, primarily from value added tax. Based on the experience of EU countries, the study identified ways to detect abuses and tax evasion in advance and, accordingly, to significantly reduce budget revenue losses through digital transformation of tax administrations, introduction of real-time reporting and new requirements for electronic invoices, and mass cross-checking of VAT invoices.

The active using of new VAT administration tools in post-socialist EU countries has reduced the VAT tax gap (the difference between potential and actual revenues) on average in these countries from 26.6% of potential tax revenues in 2012 to 9% in 2021, while in Ukraine it exceeds 40%. Scenario assessments have shown that even if VAT evasion is partially eliminated, tax revenues to the State Budget of Ukraine in 2022 could be increased by at least UAH 86-180 billion, or 9-19%.

The meeting also featured speeches by Corresponding Member of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Volodymyr Sarioglo and Lyudmyla Cherenko from the Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Problems of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine on the topic “Non-increase of utility tariffs under martial law: Pros and cons”; Dmytro LAZARENKO from the Institute of Industrial Economics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine on ‘Establishment of joint ventures with foreign partners for the utilization and processing of construction waste (PPP)’; Bohdan LOGVYNENKO from the Institute of Industrial Economics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine on ‘Strategic prospects for the development of lithium’.

The participants’ presentations sparked a lively discussion among the expert community on the possibilities of rapid response to critical threats caused by internal and external challenges. Today’s event contributed to the formation of a common position, effective coordination with government agencies and the development of specific practical solutions for the future economic development of Ukraine.

Actual and forecast price indices for food products in 2024

Researchers of the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine have prepared a forecast of food price indices in 2024.

Scientific platform at the Ministry of Economy: new developments are presented

A regular meeting of the scientific platform at the Ministry of Economy was held on July 29, 2024, where the results of new scientific research were presented. Developed scientifically based solutions were presented at the meeting by professional experts, representatives of leading scientific specialized institutions – SO “Institute for economics and forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine”, Institute of industrial economics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, SE “Ukrpromzovanshekspertiza” that contribute to the capacity of the government and society to meet today’s acute challenges, becoming the basis for implementing effective solutions, required for the recovery of the Ukrainian economy.

Vitaliy Venger

The discussion included a report by Doctor of Economics Vitaliy VENGER, the head of the Department of sectoral forecasts and market conditions of the SO “Institute for economics and forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine” entitled “Development of metal titanium production in Ukraine and prospects of integration into global added value chains” within the framework of the search and development of the TOP 10 investment projects to be implemented under the patronage of the first persons. The results of the study showed that the implementation of the project on the production of metal titanium products will provide macroeconomic and multiplier effects. In particular, it has been proven that the multiplier effect on the economy in general can ensure an average annual additional increase in the GDP of Ukraine at the level of 0.11–0.13 percentage points, and cumulatively for the first ten years of its activity, the contribution to the dynamics of the domestic GDP will be about 1.2– 1.5 p.p.

Calculations of the feasibility study of the investment project for the construction of a new plant for the metallic titanium products production showed that the project is attractive for investment for the state, domestic and foreign investors in terms of its prospects and profitability: the net present value is almost UAH 11.4 billion; internal rate of return – 17%; return on investment – more than 1.5; the profit-to-loss ratio will be 1.2; EBITDA – almost UAH 8.8 billion; the discounted payback period is almost 13 years. In addition, the implementation of the project will have positive effects for the socio-economic development of Ukraine during the entire period of its implementation: the creation of 3,500 qualitatively new jobs, the provision of significant tax revenues to the state and local budgets – 81 billion UAH, the budget multiplier – 9.2. This will contribute to the recovery of not only the titanium industry, but also provide powerful economic effects in related industries and will enable Ukraine to join global value-added chains and occupy niches in many promising markets – aviation, medical, transport, defense industry – which will have high growth rates in the medium-term annual growth.

Valery Heyets

The presentation caused a heated discussion. In particular, director of the SO “Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine”, academician of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Valery HEYETS emphasized the need to spread the technology of production of final products from titanium raw materials, which in the context of growing security threats, requires government attention to finding alternative ways to create new plants. Volodymyr VLASYUK (SE “Ukrpromzovshekspertiza”) supported the importance of activating the public-private partnership to modernize the titanium industry; Oleksandra BETLIY (Institute of Economic Research and Political Consultations) raised the issue of transparent privatization in the titanium industry. Serhii POVAZHNIUK emphasized the importance of attracting a strategic investor partner to launch titanium production facilities, mentioning the successful example of Kazakhstan.

Anatoly Burylko

Anatoly BURYLKO, Chief Specialist of the Development and Support Department eco-modernization of industry and import substitution The Department of Industrial Policy of the Ministry of Strategic Industries supported the importance of implementing strategic initiatives to restore the titanium industry, pointing to their support by a number of government regulations. At the same time, the economic mechanism for establishing a full cycle of titanium raw materials processing will increase the amount of profit received from 1 ton of titanium from 10 to 100 times.

Nataliya Gorshkova 

Nataliya GORSHKOVA, PhD in Economics, Director of the Department of Strategic Planning and Macroeconomic Forecasting at the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine, envisioned the possibility of promoting this project by developing proposals for the realization of opportunities to attract strategic investors – leading global companies from different countries.

Yevhen Bublyk

Head of the Department of monetary and credit relations of the SO “Institute for economics and forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine”, Doctor of Economics Yevhen BUBLYK presented the results of a study on the topic “Ways of involving banks in lending to the domestic economy”, where he noted that in the conditions of war and external crises, the decrease in the share of bank lending in Ukraine from 72% to 14% of GDP was caused by the uncertainty of government priorities for credit support, the discouraging effect of deposit certificates and government bonds on the credit market, weak lending activity of state-owned banks, as well as the shortcomings of the current NBU monetary policy model. In order to achieve the optimal level of credit support for the economy at 40-50% of GDP, the loan portfolio of banks should grow by 1.5-3.0% of GDP annually by 2035, and by UAH 270 billion in the first year.

Fragment of the presentation “Ways of involving banks in lending to the domestic economy”

In the conditions of war, such an increase in bank loans cannot be ensured by purely market mechanisms. The activation of bank lending will require the implementation of large-scale state targeted programs of preferential lending in the processing, mining, transport and IT sectors, which demonstrate the most favorable ratio of received loans and share in the country’s GDP. The conducted calculations proved the possibility of reducing state expenses by reducing the profitability of the part of the government bonds, which is already in the portfolio of the NBU and state banks. In 2024–2025, such savings may amount to about 125 billion UAH, and by 2037 – more than 700 billion UAH. Such a saved resource will make it possible to implement large-scale targeted credit programs, as well as contribute to the reduction of passive income of banks and the corresponding stimulation of their credit activity.

According to the agenda of the meeting, the results of their research were presented by: Yaroslav KRYL (Institute of Industrial Economics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Doctor of Economics, Director of “Voden Ukraine” LLC) – on the topic of “Development of hydrogen energy of Ukraine” as one of the TOP-10 investment projects , which should be implemented under the patronage of the first persons; Volodymyr VLASYUK, Director of SE “Ukrpromzovshekspertiza”, and Serhii POVAZHNYUK, Deputy Director for Development, on the topic “Purchase by Ukrzaliznytsia of domestic platforms for reloading during container transportation”; Volodymyr RYABOSHLYK (Ukrainian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs USPP, Kyiv Academic University KAU, Kyiv National University of Economics KNEU and NC NRUNT) – on the topic “Creating a market environment favorable for commercial lending on the basis of the achieved overcoming of inflation (from low inflation to low market rates) );

The published scientific results caused a lively discussion among the participants of the event, during which the importance and necessity of their quick practical implementation was emphasized. The joint creation of Ukraine’s future as a European democratic state is possible only through joint efforts at all levels: science – production – government.

PROGRESS: joint actions for sustainable development

On July 10, 2024, the National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine hosted the first roundtable of the PROGRESS Local Partners Coordination Group, co-organised and actively participated by scientists from the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the NAS of Ukraine. The event brought together representatives of the project consortium, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, the Ministry of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources of Ukraine, as well as national and international organisations, agricultural associations, universities, research and professional institutions.

The regional project Promoting Green Deal Readiness in the Eastern Partnership Countries (PROGRESS) is one of the new initiatives of the Energy and Climate Cluster of the German Society for International Cooperation (GIZ), aimed at mitigating climate change impacts, fostering adaptation, and ensuring sustainable development in Eastern Partnership countries (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine). Funded by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Nuclear Safety and Consumer Protection (BMUV), the project will be implemented during 2024–2028. In Ukraine, the project is being implemented by a consortium of organizations, including GIZ, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the NAS of Ukraine.

The Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the NAS of Ukraine has involved many scientists in the PROGRESS project, including staff from the Sub-department of sectoral markets and the Sub-department of energy sector development and projections of the Department of sectoral forecasts and market conditions, the Department of forms and methods of management in the agri-food complex and the Department of monetary relations.

Oleksandr Dyachuk, PhD (Engin.) speaks

Representatives of the Institute’s working group reported on their main activities within the project, on promising climate-resilient practices in the agri-food sector, on standards for good agricultural and environmental conditions, and on current policies and practices in the field of green agricultural finance. According to Oleksandr Diachuk, PhD (Engin.) , the head of the working group from the Institute, a leading researcher of the Sub-department of energy sector development and projections of the Department of sectoral forecasts and market conditions, although today the biggest challenge and threat to our country is a full–scale war, climate change should be put in second place, as it poses significant short– and long–term threats, the negative consequences of which cannot be levelled quickly. Therefore, despite the war, the PROGRESS project is extremely relevant for Ukraine, its farmers, businesses, and citizens. ‘Thanks to the governments of Germany and Ukraine, as well as our partners at various levels, we can spread the best practices and methods of adapting agriculture to the effects of climate change throughout the country,’ Oleksandr Diachuk noted.

Olena Shubravska, Doctor of Economics, professor, speaks 

Olena Shubravska, Doctor of Economics, professor, head of the Department of forms and methods of management in the agri-food complex of the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the NAS of Ukraine, noted that adapting agriculture to the negative impact of climate change involves primarily maintaining soil fertility, economical consumption of water resources, and conservation of biodiversity. The EU pays great attention to implementing climate-resilient practices, and their application involves mandatory conditions that are the basis for financing European farmers. It is obvious that such an approach should become a guideline for Ukraine as well. Reorientation to environmentally friendly and climate-resilient agri-food production is one of the key factors in ensuring its long-term sustainability, as well as a significant sign of the Ukrainian agricultural sector’s compliance with the EU’s requirements during integration.

Tamara Ostashko, Corresponding Member of the NAAS of Ukraine, speaks

Tamara Ostashko, chief researcher of the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the NAS of Ukraine, Corresponding Member of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences (NAAS) of Ukraine, referred to the climate-resilient practices of greenhouse fruit and berry growing in the EU, emphasising the feasibility of their implementation in Ukraine. The scientist noted that innovative greenhouse fruit and berry growing practices such as intelligent irrigation systems, aeroponics, use of renewable energy sources for heating, etc. reduce the carbon footprint of greenhouse products, the impact of external climatic conditions and the use of pesticides, and increase the efficiency of water, fertilisers and other resources.

Yevhen Bublyk, Doctor of Economics, speaks

The use of ‘green finance’ simultaneously opens up additional opportunities not only for participation in environmental protection but also for strengthening the competitiveness of the entire economy and individual businesses, indicated Yevhen Bublyk, Doctor of Economics, head of the Department of monetary relations at the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the NAS of Ukraine. The scientist emphasized that to promote the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), adaptation to climate challenges and the requirements of European integration, as well as the prospects for access to vast amounts of relevant funds, the spread of green finance combines the interests of the main participants in the agricultural sector – from government authorities and financial intermediaries to farmers and gardeners.

Staff of the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the NAS of Ukraine

Other researchers from the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the NAS of Ukraine also participated in the round table: Vitaliy Venger, Doctor of Economics, head of the Department of sectoral forecasts and market conditions; Roman Podoliets, PhD, head of the Sub-department of energy sector development and projections of the Department of the sectoral forecasting and market conditions; Olha Popova, Doctor of Economics, chief researcher of the Department of forms and methods of management in the agri-food complex; Svitlana Brus, PhD, leading researcher of the Department of monetary relations; Volodymyr Olefir, PhD, leading researcher of the Sub-department of sectoral marketsr of the Department of the sectoral forecasting and market conditions; Kateryna Prokopenko, PhD, leading researcher of the Department of forms and methods of management in the agri-food complex; Halyna Trypolska, PhD, leading researcher of the Sub-department of energy sector development and projections of the Department of the sectoral forecasting and market conditions; Yuliia Shapoval, PhD, senior researcher of the Department of monetary relations; Tetiana Saprykyna and Andrii Semeniuk, junior researchers of the Sub-department of energy sector development and projections of the Department of the sectoral forecasting and market conditions; Valentyna Denysenko, leading engineer of scientific and technical information.

Martina Kolb, Program Director of the PROGRESS project, noted that, given Ukraine’s accession negotiations with the EU, the project should support implementing all necessary requirements in the agricultural sector. Stakeholders from various groups are collaborating with the aim of strengthening the resilience and adaptation of the Ukrainian agricultural sector to climate risks.

Representatives of the GIZ Kyiv – project manager Dmytro Berezovsky and project advisor Artem Sadov – delivered a presentation on the historical background, features, and plans for implementing the PROGRESS project. OECD representatives Krzysztof Michalak, Isabella Neuweg, Olga Olson, and Nelly Petkova assessed the state of Ukraine’s agricultural policy in light of climate risks.

The roundtable demonstrated the critical importance of international cooperation and exchange of experience for successfully implementing the European Green Deal in Ukraine and other Eastern Partnership countries.

Information on the NAS of Ukraine website

A new coordinate system for innovation

Another issue of the program “About science. Competently” (presented by Academician of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Volodymyr Semynozhenko), which is broadcast on the YouTube channel of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, – “New Coordinate System for Innovations” – is dedicated to monitoring and evaluating the scientific, technical and innovative development and potential of our state. The guest of the program was the head of the department of innovation policy, economy and organization of high technologies of the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, corresponding member of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Ihor Yehorov. 

Who should take care of the preservation of sectoral and factory science?

Read in the article of V.K. Haustov, the scientist secretary of the SO “Institute of Economics and Forecasting of the NAS of Ukraine”, PhD (Engin.), “Will Ukrainian Science Supreme?”, published on Zn.ua on July 13, 2024.

Entrepreneurship during war: challenges and prospects

“Economic prospects of entrepreneurship: challenges of wartime and post-war recovery” have been discussed by scientists at the VII International Workshop at the State Tax University (Irpin) on May 31, 2024. This annual scientific forum was held under the auspices of the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine and the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine. The event was co-organized by the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. The workshop was attended by foreign partners – the Baltic International Academy (Latvia), Leibniz Institute of Agrarian Development in Central and Eastern Europe (Germany), and Zeliona Gura University (Poland).

The scientific issues discussed at the workshop included:

1. The international landscape and the key imperatives of the functioning of entrepreneurship in the world in the conditions of aggravation of global contradictions and threats.

2. Development of entrepreneurship in Ukraine during the war: domestic potential, conditions, state policy.

3. Post-war decompression of entrepreneurial initiative: drivers and limitations.

4. Advanced financial mechanisms for ensuring business efficiency.

5. Trends and tasks of the development of accounting, auditing and taxation of business entities.

6. Digital and environmental innovations: business and public opportunities.

7. Ukraine is a space of opportunities for business development: the view of young people.

In the course of the workshop, the key issues of discussion included ensuring the stability of the Ukrainian economy and individual companies, modern trends and threats to business development in war conditions, promising directions for the transformation of entrepreneurship and necessary state policy measures to strengthen and support the entrepreneurial sector.

Among the leading speakers of the plenary session were scientists from SO “Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine” and the SO ” M. I. Dolishnyi Institute of Regional Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine”.

In particular, the report “Transformation of Ukrainian entrepreneurship and the potential for socio-economic solidarity in the wartime economy” was presented by Dr. Econ. Viktoriia Nebrat – Head of the Department of Economic History [presentation]. Various features and new trends of entrepreneurship in the conditions of full-scale war were presented, namely: absolute and relative increase in the informal economy, development of social entrepreneurship, transformation of corporate social responsibility strategies, growing role of farm and family production, spread of craft production, deeper processing of local agricultural raw materials and longer creation of added value, development of various forms of sharing economy (coworking, ridesharing, crowdfunding, fundraising platforms, etc.). sting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.

V. Nebrat revealed historical traditions, foreign experience and actual determinants of the development of economic forms of social solidarity in the conditions of war and post-war recovery. In the discussion on her presentation, the participants emphasized the importance of implementing the presented provisions into the educational process.

Chief Researcher of the Department of Forms and Methods of Management in the Agro-Food Complex at SO “Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine”, Dr. Econ., Professor, Honored Economist of Ukraine Lyubov Moldavan made a presentation on “Agro-ecological innovations in the post-war use of natural resources in agriculture”. The expert characterized the main challenges facing Ukraine’s agricultural sector and substantiated the need for agro-ecological farming as such that ensures the balance between economic, social and ecological components of agricultural development.

Chief Researcher of the Sub-Department of Sectoral markets, Department of Sectoral Forecasts and Market Conjuncture Dr. Econ. Oleh Pustovoyt brought to the discussion a few problems related to the necessity and possibilities of shortening the terms of the post-war recovery of Ukraine’s economy, finding ways to combine the efforts of the state, science and business for the structural modernization of production, and its export potential, the introduction of a new model of economic development capable to promote Ukraine’s integration in the EU. The scientist presented the results of his own research on “Individual priorities for the post-war recovery of Ukraine’s exports”.

The workshop organized by joint efforts of scientists, educators and practitioners serves as a prerequisite for raising the scientific level of professional education, contributes to the strengthening of the positions and realization of the socio-humanitarian mission of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, and most importantly – creates a theoretical basis for solving the urgent tasks of economic stability and consolidation of Ukrainian society.

Information on the NAS of Ukraine website

International financial aspects recovery of the Ukrainian economy

On June 6, 2024, the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine hosted an international workshop on “International financial aspects of the recovery of Ukraine’s economy”, attended by scientists from Ukraine, Georgia, Kazakhstan and Italy, who tried to formulate proposals for the recovery of the Ukrainian socio-economic sphere during and after the war.

The experts discussed the following topics:

• the role and capabilities of Ukraine’s banking system of Ukraine in wartime conditions;

• participation of international financial organizations in the economic modernization of the country;

• the role of public-private partnership in recovering Ukraine’s economy;

• the role of international financial funds and organizations in the transformation of the economy;

• debt strategy and assessment of the state’s debt security level;

• multinational companies as global investors today;

• international capital migration in modern conditions;

• spatial and sectoral imperatives of the productive capacity of Ukrainian regions at the current stage of European integration.

Welcoming the participants, Director of the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Academician of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Valery Heyets, emphasized the importance of solving the debt problem. According to him, threats, challenges and the state of finances within the country significantly depend on international capital flows. Since there are currently no ready-made tools for solving these problems, the joint thoughts and solutions formulated at the workshop on the above issues will help to develop steps to overcome Ukraine’s financial problems. Valeriy Heyets also noted the importance of using new tools using digital technologies, but emphasized that they can have both positive and negative consequences.

Interesting reports were delivered by the Deputy Director for Scientific Work of the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Academician of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Andrii Hrytsenko and Corresponding Member of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Serhii Korablin, Head of the Subcommittee on Capital Markets, Other Regulated Markets, Securities and Financial Derivatives of the Committee of the Supreme Council of Ukraine on Finance, Tax and Customs Policy Andrii Nikolayenko, Head of the Sector of International Financial Relations of the Public Finance Department at the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Doctor of Economics, Professor Olena Borzenko, Chief Researcher of the Sector of International Financial Research of the Public Finance Department at the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Doctor of Economics, Professor Oleksandr Sharov, Professor of the Department of International Economic Relations of the Faculty of Economics of the Vasyl Stus Donetsk National University, Doctor of Economic Sciences Leonid Kisterskyi and others.

In his speech, People’s Deputy Andrii Nikolayenko drew attention to the need to carefully study the experience of the post-war recovery of the national economy based on the model of state capitalism, in particular the Republic of Korea (South Korea), which involves the active role of the state in the establishment and development of industries and corporate forms of production that are competitive on the foreign market. He welcomed the development and submission to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine and consideration in the first reading of the long-awaited draft law on the National Development Institution, which, by analogy with the so-called Marshall Plan [officially this document was called the European Recovery Program], should act in close coordination with an international financial institution – a transparent corporate structure through which financial and investment resources would be systematically directed for the economic recovery of Ukraine.

Academician of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Andrii Hrytsenko emphasized that the recovery of Ukraine should be reconstructive, which means changing the development model, goal setting, and the priorities and mechanisms for achieving the goal. Special attention should be paid to the concept of nationally rooted development, which involves the assertion of sovereignty over the creation of own economic complex, the implementation of strategic planning as a condition for purposefulness and coordination of various and diverse efforts aimed at reconstructive recovery. In this context, the implementation of national target projects is of fundamental importance.

According to Doctor of Economics, Professor Oleksandr Sharov, it is important that the process of post-war economic recovery of Ukraine be based on a national development strategy, which could be called the “Kyiv Consensus”. The tasks of such a strategy should be fully consistent with our European integration program and contain effective anti-corruption safeguards.

Corresponding Member of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Serhii Korablin called for a more realistic and rational approach to the prospects of attracting external financial funds for the purpose of post-war economic and social recovery. In this context, he gave the example of Iraq, where only 15% of total number of property cases regarding the compensation of damages and losses of national individuals and legal entities caused by military actions were compensated.

Doctor of Economics, Professor Leonid Kisterskyi supported the proposals regarding the priority need to create within the framework of the “Marshall Plan for Ukraine” – an appropriate international coordination center and an appropriate national state institution for post-war economic reconstruction, which would act on the principles of project regulation/management.

For the purpose of recovering the potential of our country after the war, Leading Researcher of the Sector of International Financial Relations of the Public Finance Department in the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Doctor of Political Sciences, Professor Ihor Pilyaev suggested involving Asian multilateral development banks, namely the Asian Development Bank (founded in 1966 on the initiative of the United States and Japan; current assets – more than 270 billion USD) and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (founded in 2014 at the initiative of China; authorized capital – 100 billion USD).

The participants also noted the following points:

• the recovery experience of other countries should be considered, but Ukraine has its own unique conditions, so they should be taken into account and acted upon in accordance with national interests;

• EU and US countries are interested in returning their investments and loans, as well as in strengthening the security system in Europe;

• Ukraine needs not only to strengthen its security and defense, but also to form  a basis for sustainable long-term socio-economic development, therefore it is imperative to create a competitive military-innovative and processing economy based on a national consensus and effective anti-corruption safeguards.

         Based on the workshop’s materials, a collection of theses is planned to be published on the website of the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.

Information on the NAS of Ukraine website

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