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Department of Modeling and Forecasting of Economic Development

About this department: The Department was established in November 1997. The first Head of the Department was the recognized scientist in the field of macroeconomics, economic-mathematical modeling and forecasting of economic development Valeriy Heyets. He is Doctor of Economics, Professor, Academician of the Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Honored Scientist of Ukraine, and Winner of various State Prizes of Ukraine. Presently, the Department’s Acting Head is Chief Researcher Doctor of Economics, Professor, Corresponding member of NAS of Ukraine, Honored Economist of Ukraine Maria Skrypnychenko.

Fields of Research: • endogenization and assessment of potential economic growth;
• modeling economic dynamics of Ukraine;
• state policy in the post-crisis period;
• structural transformation of the economy;
• development of the services sector and effective use of human potential;
• modernization of the housing and utilities sector;
• macroeconomic balance and identification of imbalances in Ukraine’s economy;
• accumulation of financial capital;
• neutrality of money and economic growth;
• determinants of competitive advantages and structure of foreign trade;
• prospects of Ukraine's integration into the global and European economic structures.

Personalities: Current Activities

In recent years the department has been engaged in scenario based forecasting of macroeconomic indicators in Ukraine's economy for 2016-2020 with defining the specific features in the medium term effect of individual factors such as changes in the policy of the regulation of aggregate supply and demand, money supply, CPI, producers’ prices, energy prices, exchange rate and others.
Special attention was given to the key variables, which shape the medium term trends in Ukraine’s growth rates (those derived from the geopolitical situation, international political relations, global supply and demand, inter-state trade barriers, natural cataclysms, the environment situation etc.).
Based on the theory and models of endogenous growth, the Department’s researchers summarized and further developed the methodology of systemic research on the factors of macroeconomic imbalances and conducted a theoretical and methodological analysis of the key causes of the imbalances in the major indicators (GDP, budget, key monetary indicators, and balance of payments) for individual foreign countries and for Ukraine.
In the context of stability of Ukraine’s economic system, the researchers carried out an assessment of its ability to confront global challenges with a justification of various methodological approaches to formalization and assessment of the main factors of macroeconomic instability (in the areas of business cycles, inflation, unemployment, information, institutional transformation) in the models of economic growth under unstable conditions of the global and domestic economy.
On the basis of the above mentioned investigations, the Department has constantly submitted relevant results of their analytical work to the national authorities engaged in the economic management such as the Cabinet of Ministers, Verkhovna Rada and others.

Major Publications: Skrypnychenko M. (ed.). (2015). Models for the identification of macroeconomic disbalances. Kyiv: Institute for Economics and Forecasting.

Heyets V. (2015). Overcoming the quasi-marketivity: road to an investment based model of economic growth. Economica Ukrainy, 6 (543), 4–17.

Heyets V. (2015). On the use of the “Marshall Plan” for Ukraine. Economica Ukrainy, 4 (541), 4–11.

Heyets V. (2014). Society, state, economy: phenomenology of the interaction and development. Moscow: Ekonomika.

Heyets V. (2014). The institutional conditionality of innovation in Ukraine’s industrial development. Economica Ukrainy, 12 (637), 4–19.

Lebeda T. (2014). Macroeconomic modeling of the budget redistribution of the GDP. Kyiv: Institute for Economics and Forecasting.

Skrypnychenko M. (2014). A system of macro-models in the programic and analytical set of tools “Macro-forecast of Ukraine’s economy”. Economist, 4, 85–96.

Zapatrina I. (2013). Public-private partnership: a potential for the developing economies. Saarbrucken: Lambert Academic Publishing.

Zapatrina I. (2013). The prospects of the development of heat supply systems in Ukraine. Moscow: Ekonomika.

Shvets S. (2013). Short term forecasting of gross value added. Kyiv: Institute for Economics and Forecasting.

Stepanenko-Lypovyk B. (2013). Green business: essence, financial aspects, and development guidelines in Ukraine. Kyiv: AgrarMediaGrup

Heyets V. (2013). What kind of future does a social state have? Ekonomika Ukrainy, 7, 4–20.

Skrypnychenko M. (ed.). (2012). Factors of macroeconomic instability in system of economic development models. Kyiv: Institute for Economics and Forecasting.

Heyets V. (2012). On the unity and contradictions in the development of society, state and economy. Ekonomika Ukrainy, 10, .4–23.

Heyets V. (2012). On the unity and contradictions in the development of society, state and economy. Ekonomika Ukrainy, 11, .4–22.

Partners: The Department (as of 31.12.2015) consists of 23 staff workers, among whom are 1 Academician, 4 Doctors of Economics and 9 PhDs in Economics.

Partnership: International cooperation. The Department’s researchers are participating in joint research with international institutions and organizations, including:
• with LINK UN Project (assessing the prospects of economic development globally and for individual countries (Canada, Toronto), 1992 - ;
• preparing mid-term forecasts of macroeconomic indicators for Ukraine's economic development: with Analytical Center «Consensus» (UK, London) 1998 - .

Partners in Ukraine:
• Institute of Cybernetics of NASU, Kyiv;
• Institute of Industrial Economics of NASU, Kyiv;
• Zakarpattia Regional Center for Socio-Economic and Humanities Research, Uzhgorod;
• Institute of Market Problems and Economic-Ecological Research of NASU, Odesa;
• Research Centre of Industrial Problems of NASU, Kharkiv;
• Institute of Telecommunications and Global Information Space of NASU, Kyiv.
• Kyiv Taras Shevchenko National University, Kyiv;
• National University of "Kyiv-Mohyla Academy", Kyiv;
• National University of Life and Environmental Sciences, Kyiv;
• National Technical University of Ukraine "Kyiv Polytechnic Institute", Kyiv;
• National Institute for Strategic Studies, Kyiv;
• Training Institute NAPA, Kyiv;
• Diplomatic Academy of Ukraine, Kyiv;
• Kyiv National Trade and Economic University, Kyiv.

Contacts: State Institution "Institute for Economics and Forecasting of NAS of Ukraine"
Department of Modeling and Forecasting of Economic Development
26, Panasa Myrnoho, Kyiv, 01011, Ukraine
Phone: +38 (044) 280-04-17
E-mail: omer80@mail.ru