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Department of Sectoral Forecasting and Market Conjuncture

About this department: Department of Sectoral Forecasts and Market Conditions was established on November 1, 1997 under the guidance of of Doctor of Economics, Professor, Honored Economist of Ukraine Victor TOCHYLIN, the founder of the scientific school of economics in such areas: modeling and optimization of organizational structures of economic ties in the agricultural sector (1980-1990); food security as a concept of market reforms in the agricultural sector of Ukraine (1994-1997); concept, mechanisms and regulators of the national market of Ukraine (1998-2002) markets the real economy of Ukraine: structural and institutional analysis, market conditions and integration; priorities of the internal market of Ukraine (2003-2013).
On the results of the researchers’ investigations, the Department has submitted to publication over 400 research works, including 10 monographs, (5 collective and 5 individual) and 6 presentations).
Today the Department of Sectoral Forecasts and Market Conditions is headed by Doctor of Economics, Corresponding Member of National Academy of Agrarian Science Tamara OSTASHKO, an expert in many areas of current trade policy and agrarian economy.

The Department consists of two sectors:
• Sector of Industrial Markets (Assistant Head: Doctor of Economics, Corresponding Member of National Academy of Agrarian Science Tamara OSTASHKO;
• Sector of Energy Development Projections (Head: PhD in Economics Roman PODOLETS).

Fields of Research: • Institutional support and structural organization of markets.
• State regulation of market economic activities.
• Development of the domestic market.
• Integration into the world trade and economic structures (WTO, EU).
• Development of technical regulation.
• Markets of real economy:
• agricultural raw materials;
• food products;
• energy;
• metal.

Personalities: • Identified and evaluated medium- and long-term effects of external economic conditions on the dynamics of the domestic market of Ukraine. The key ones among them are the following: changes in the structure of commodity production in favor of exports of raw materials and intermediate products, increased sensitivity to negative shocks from the external situation and worsening conditions for endogenous growth.
• Justified priority directions of state policy for sustainable and accelerated endogenous growth of domestic market; import substitution; deepening the level of the existing processing of natural resources, production of new items; improving qualitative characteristics of domestic products; preventing the entry of counterfeit products to the market; and gradual reduction of cross-subsidizing.
• Defined measures of public policy support for exports of agricultural products, aimed at improving the competitiveness of Ukrainian food products.
• Defined the potential and directions of energy efficiency in the key sectors. Developed a complex of measures on energy efficiency, which are structured into two groups: general and specific ones.
• Proposed and implemented, on the basis of input-output model, a methodological approach to quantify the multiplier effect (impact) of the backbone industries on the increase in domestic output and on the domestic market.
• For indicative predicting of the dynamics of industrial output, suggested the use of diffusion index and PFTS index. Revealed that both indicators are cyclical in nature.
• Justified that such government measures as export restrictions, quotas, non-return of VAT on exports, and export tariffs considerably destabilize the markets of agricultural products in Ukraine, increasing the risks for grain producers and limit the output. Found that budgetary subsidies for grain producers, against the background of the negative interest of the PSCT is irrelevant and represents an inefficient use of public resources.
• Obtained a quantitative evaluation of the relationships between key macroeconomic indicators and components of the conjuncture on the metal market and assessed the trends of the demand for Ukrainian steel by major importing countries in the medium term.
• The global trend of the trade policy is liberalization of the world trade. Since the beginning of its integration into the system of world trade, Ukraine has been liberalizing its trade regimes. The Sector’s researchers have assessed the effect of the liberalization of trade regimes during the period of Ukraine's membership in the WTO and the potential impact of further liberalization of trade regimes in the FTA with the EU on the structure of the domestic market of Ukraine and some commodity markets. Justified the scenarios of Ukraine’s trade relations with the countries of the Currency Union within the EurAsEC and CIS FTA, and evaluated the losses in Ukraine’s trade balance in these scenarios.
• The researchers have developed the guidelines of the policies of state protectionist to accelerate structural changes in the domestic commodity production. Based on the conducted research of the conditions of the EU markets, trading conditions and problems in trade between Ukraine and EU, they have justified various proposals for the development of trade with the EU in the products of agri-food group. A characteristic tendency of world trade is to increase non-tariff barriers, especially by developed countries. Various theoretical and methodological approaches to the analysis of the impact of non-tariff barriers in international trade have been defined and identified the most significant non-tariff barriers in Ukraine’s foreign trade.

Major Publications: • V.Tochylin, K.Humeniuk, T.Zahorska et al. (2001). Development of the sectors and commodity markets in Ukraine. Kyiv: IBA
• V.Tochylin, T.Zahorska, Lir et al. (2004). Formation of Ukraine’s sectoral markets during the transitional period. Kyiv: Feniks
• T.Ostashko (2004). Market oriented transformation of the agrarian sector. Kyiv: Feniks
• T.Ostashko (2006). Structural and institutional analysis of the agrarian market. Kyiv: Institute for Economic and Forecasting
• V.Tochylin, T.Ostashko, O.Pustovoit (2004). Problems and directions of the protection of the domestic market. Kyiv: Institute for Economic and Forecasting
• V.Tochylin, T.Ostashko, O.Pustovoit (2009). The markets of the Ukrainian real sector: a structural and institutional analysis. Kyiv: Institute for Economic and Forecasting
• T.Ostashko, L.Voloschenko, H.Lenivova (2009). Domestic agro-food market of Ukraine. Kyiv: Institute for Economic and Forecasting
• T.Ostashko (2010). The risks Ukrainian agriculture during the introduction of free trade regime with the EU. Kyiv: Institute for Economic and Forecasting
• T.Ostashko, L.Voloschenko-Holda (2011). Extraordinary measures by the WTO for the protection of agro-food markets. Kyiv: Institute for Economic and Forecasting
• R.Podolets, O.Diachuk (2011). Strategic planning in the fuel-energy complex on the basis of “TIMES-Ukraine” model. Kyiv: Institute for Economics and Forecasting
• Ed: V.Tochylin (2012). The markets of Ukraine’s real sector in the institutional emvironment of the WTO. Kyiv: Institute for Economics and Forecasting
• Ed: V.Heyets, A.Danylenko, L.Deineko, V.Tochylin (2013). Development priorities of Ukraine’s domestic market. Kyiv: Institute for Economics and Forecasting
• L.Deineko, T.Ostashko, V.Tochylin (2013). Problems, guidelines and factors promoting the development of Ukraine domestic market (the real sector). Kyiv: Institute for Economic and Forecasting
• Ed: V.Heyets, A.Danylenko, V.Tochylin (2013). Opportunities and restrictions as to the consequences of the enactment of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement. Kyiv: Institute for Economic and Forecasting
* Ed. V.Heyets, T.Ostashko, L.Shynkaruk (2014). Assessing the impact of AA / FTA between Ukraine and EU on Ukraine’s economy. Kyiv: Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine.
* Ed. V.Heyets, A.Danylenko, T.Ostashko (2015). Implementation of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU: Recommendations based on the experience of Eastern Europe. Kyiv: Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine.
* Ed. T.Ostashko (2015). Structural change and regulation of the markets in conditions of the liberalization of Ukraine’s foreign trade. Kyiv: Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine.

Partners: The Department consists of 23 staff employees, including 1 Corresponding Member of the Academy of Agricultural Sciences, 1 Docror of Economics and 12 PhDs.

Contacts: State Institution "Institute for Economics and Forecasting of NAS of Ukraine"
Department of Sectoral Forecasts and Market Conditions
26, Panasa Mirnoho st., Kyiv, 01011, Ukraine
Phone: +38 (044) 280-84-64
E-mail: tostashko@ukr.net
E-mail: podolets@ief.org.ua