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Archive for лютого, 2015

Recommendations for the implementation of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU on the basis of experience in Eastern Europe

A new research paper by the Institute has been published:

The implementation of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU: recommendations based on the experience of Eastern Europe: research paper / ed. Acad. NAS of Ukraine V.Heyets, Corr. NAS of Ukraine A.Danylenko, Cor. NAAS of Ukraine, Dr. of Econ.  T.Ostashko; National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, State Institution "Institute for Economics and Forecasting of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine"- K., 2015. - 104 p.

The report provides recommendations on the implementation of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU elaborated by a research team of State Institutions "Institute for Economics and Forecasting of NAS of Ukraine" (IEF) based on analysis of the experience of European integration in Eastern Europe.

The scientists investigated various problems of the implementation of the Agreement for individual industries, markets, and economic and financial institutions, such as agriculture, food processing, steel, energy, rail transport, financial markets, monetary policy, technical regulations, public procurement and the environment, and produced a series of recommendations for the government and business with a focus on the role of industry associations and mechanisms of cooperation between business and government.

The recommendations are based on the analysis of the experience of implementation of the European Association Agreements in Eastern European countries and analysis of structural changes that have occurred in these countries after the completion of the implementation and following their EU membership. Special attention was given to those provisions of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU, whose implementation, as shown by analysis of the experience of Eastern Europe, may require extension of time, and whose implementation involved EU financial assistance.

The paper is the third issue in the series dealing with the problems of European integration of Ukraine completed by the research team of IEF scientists.

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Development of modeling tools for the analysis and forecasting of the reliability of the Integrated Power System (IPS) of Ukraine

        Sector of Energy Development Projections (Department of Sectoral Forecasting and Market Conditions) has completed work on research project "Modeling and Economic Evaluation of the Measures to Ensure Reliable Operation of the Integrated Power System of Ukraine During Extension or Decommission of Nuclear Power Reactor Units"; Stage Two: "Development of Modeling Tools for the Analysis and Forecasting of the Reliability of the Integrated Power System (IPS) of Ukraine" (topic supervisor - Head of the Sector, Ph.D. R.Podolets).

         As a result of the completion of the research project, the working group, with the use of IAEA’s licensed modeling software "WASP-IV", created an applied optimization modeling tool “WASP-Ukraine” for the development, assessment and analysis of scenarios of long-term development of the generation capacities of the Ukrainian IPS with regard to ensuring the reliability of its operation. The tool provides a detailed account of the structure of generating capacities of Ukrainian IPS and the set of technical, economic and environmental parameters of its work, with the possibility to assign critical values of reserve capacities and aggregated indicators of the power system’s reliability.

          Using the developed modeling tool "WASP-Ukraine", the researchers carried out an experimental model run of the baseline scenario of the generating capacities of the Ukrainian IPS for the period up to 2030, taking into account the reliability of its operation, including the aggregated indicators of the loss-of-load probability (LOLP) and energy non supplied (ENS). The calculation results showed a sufficient level of adequacy of the model based estimates of the future structure of generating capacities, electricity generation and reliability of the Ukrainian IPS (excluding the modern force majeure in the power sector).

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Innovations and Ukraine’s social and economic development

Department of Innovation Policy, Economics and High-Tech Research completed work on "The main problems and guidelines of Ukraine’s innovative development in 2015-2020."

 The work is the result of comprehensive research by specialists from several Ukrainian research institutions (coordination and general methodology to implement the project were provided by the State Institution "Institute for Economics and Forecasting of NAS of Ukraine"). The researchers deepened the understanding of the importance of innovation in the reproductive processes in a modern economy, revealed various socio-economic generalities determining the dynamics of innovation development both at the state level and at the level of individual companies. In particular it is shown that, with the innovative type of development, the dynamics of change reaches a level at which features that characterize the variability of state, begin to greatly dominate over those that characterize its stability. The authors show the role of national institutions in the implementation of innovation policy under the crisis conditions, in which Ukraine is now.

 The investigation provides calculations of the dynamics of the main indicators of innovation development in recent twenty years. There are proposals to strengthen the impact of innovation on the modernization of the national economy through the formation of national institutions whose activities should be focused on achieving the priorities of innovation of the economy, particularly in the financial sector, such as universal and specialized development banks, export-import banks, government and venture leasing companies, innovation funds and foundations, regional development agencies and others. Among innovation-oriented national institutions of other types, which should acquire particular importance are parks, industrial parks, business incubators, research centers, technology transfer centers, centers of design and others that will contribute to the development of innovation infrastructure and mainly act on the principles of entrepreneurship.

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