At the regular meeting of the Presidium of the NAS of Ukraine on February 11, 2026, the presentation on "Sustainability of Ukraine's Public Finances and Opportunities for Its Strengthening" [in Ukrainian] was delivered by Inna Lunina, Doctor of Economics, Professor, Corresponding Member of the NAS of Ukraine, Head of the Department of Public Finance at the State Organization "Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine".
The main points of the presentation are the following:
- The state of public finances of Ukraine under a full-scale war was analyzed and the key challenges for the state's budgetary system were outlined. In particular, it was noted that the full-scale aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine became a systemic shock for the latter’s economy and public finances. In the conditions of a sharp narrowing of the economic base, the destruction of production and infrastructure capacity, the increase in social risks and the unprecedented needs of the security and defense sector, the government was forced to promptly transform budget policy by adapting it to military realities.
- Adaptation of Ukraine's public finances to the war shock under conditions of limited domestic financial resources was carried out mainly via emergency measures, external financial assistance, and debt financing. This model allowed the state to function in the critical period, but it entails increased long-term risks of financial instability.
- Special attention was given to increasing the efficiency of budget policy and strengthening the revenue base of the central and local budgets, expanding domestic revenues as the basis of the state's financial sovereignty. Attention was focused on such an important reserve for increasing tax revenues, as reduction of tax losses, primarily of value-added tax. Due to imperfect administration VAT gap in Ukraine according to our estimates can reach up to 40% of its’ potential revenues. Therefore the digital transformation of tax control was identified as an important guideline through the introduction of real-time transaction monitoring tools, which should promote a significant increase of budget revenues without increasing tax pressure.
- An additional tool for resource mobilization could be the introduction of elements of solidarity taxation, in particular additional levy on high income.
- The speaker emphasized the need for a gradual transition from dependence on external sources to systemic measures aimed at strengthening the domestic revenue base and raising the efficiency of fiscal policy, which are important prerequisites for the sustainability of Ukraine's public finances in the context of war and post-war recovery.
During the discussion on the presentation, Doctor of Law, Secretary of the Accounting Chamber of Ukraine Vasyl Nevidomyi, emphasized the practical value of the presented research for increasing transparency and accountability of public finances. In particular, he stated the development of financial audit, the introduction of the government’s consolidated financial reporting and the need to improve the system of parliamentary control over the management of budgetary resources. Special attention was devoted to the issues of debt sustainability and fiscal risk management.
Andriy Buryachenko, Doctor of Economics, Head of the Viktor Fedosov Finance Department at Vadym Hetman Kyiv National Economic University, pointed out the condition of local government finances in wartime, emphasizing the growing imbalances between communities in different regions and the importance of a clear division of competencies between the central and local levels in terms of financial responsibility and the provision of public services.
Academician-Secretary of the Department of Economics of the NAS of Ukraine, Director of the State Organization "Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine", Academician of the NAS of Ukraine Valeriy Heyets focused on global economic trends affecting Ukraine’s financial system, in particular, the growth of the world debt burden and the need for a strategic rethinking of approaches to financing development. He emphasized the importance of structural changes in the financing of science and innovation, as well as the need to expand research in the field of local finance, taking into account administrative and territorial reform and the post-war recovery.