The concept of Ukraine's monetary policy in the war and post-war period (applied scientific research)
Period: January 1, 2023 - June 30, 2025
State registration number: 0123U103147
Scientific supervisor: Doctor of Economic Sciences, senior researcher, Yevhen Bublyk
Customer: National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
Main results:
- justifies a goal-oriented approach in the context of analysing the effectiveness of monetary policy, where effectiveness is defined as the extent to which regulatory measures in the monetary sphere contribute to the full and rapid achievement of the objectives officially recognised by the monetary regulator, as well as those objectives necessary for the functioning of the monetary system and the associated development of the national economy;
- the specific nature of monetary policy in small open economies, linked to the introduction of an inflation targeting regime, is examined. It is argued that in small open economies, particularly in Ukraine, monetary policy is more restrictive towards domestic business due to inherently higher inflation rates and currency depreciation. The constraints imposed by the inflation targeting regime artificially limit the potential effectiveness of monetary policy in Ukraine in supporting economic growth, given the underdeveloped nature of financial markets, the predominantly non-monetary nature of current inflationary processes, and the specific impact of exchange rate volatility;
- the directions for institutional improvements to the effectiveness of the monetary policy framework in Ukraine are substantiated; in particular, the hierarchy of official strategic objectives is clarified, operational targets are combined with the subordination of the inflation targeting objective to the needs of financial stability and economic growth, control over exchange rate fluctuations is strengthened, and monetary and fiscal policy measures are coordinated;
- scientifically and practically grounded recommendations for improving the foreign exchange market in Ukraine under martial law, which envisage a combination of measures to develop a comprehensive system of foreign exchange regulation, coordinated anti-inflationary measures by the NBU and the Government, balanced by interest rate compensation under state credit support programmes involving state-owned banks, and measured financial support for budgetary expenditure on investment purposes.
The results of this work have led to the publication of the monographs:
- The Evolution of Monetary Policy in Ukraine and its Impact on Economic Development (authors: V. Garkavenko, G. Yershova)