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A study of promising areas of sustainable development in Ukraine with the use of economic-mathematical modeling tools

Sector of Energy Development Projections (Department of Sectoral Forecasting and Market Conditions) has completed work on research project "Economic-mathematical modeling tools to support decision-making for ensuring the sustainable development of Ukraine"; II (V) stage: "A study of promising areas of sustainable development in Ukraine with the use of economic-mathematical modeling tools" (topic supervisor - Head of the Sector, Ph.D. R.Podolets). For the first time in Ukraine, the authors made a factor scenario based analysis of the long term impact of conducting the policy of sustainable development in power sector with the use of a set of special modeling tools, which made it possible to define the contribution (priority) of certain policies (measures) to achieve the established sustainability criteria of the development of the power sector, in particular, in the context of Ukraine's international commitments on renewable energy, energy efficiency, reduction of greenhouse gas emissions etc., and to quantify the investment needs, possible economic losses for individual categories of energy consumers at various stages of economic development and ways to prevent or compensate for such losses. The researchers improved the integrated modeling approach consisting of a linear optimization model of the energy system (TIMES-Ukraine) and a computational general equilibrium model with extended energy sector (CGE + E) in terms of structural integration of the modeling tools, seasonal characteristics and projecting horizon, and conditions and restrictions of the development of Ukraine’s energy sector until 2050, expanding the set of parameters used in the iterative process of data exchange between the models. The improvement of the modeling tools provides the possibility to use it as a decision support system to take account of sustainable development criteria in the process of governance and strategic planning of the Ukrainian energy sector development (in the course of creating (actualization) of sectoral policy documents), which is unique in Ukraine in scientific and technological terms. Further developed methodological approaches to the integrated use of economic-mathematical models of different classes to evaluate the effects of the policy of sustainable energy development through the implementation of the model softlinking approach using the procedure of iterative calculations. The proposed algorithm provides an additional review of verification and calibration of the data obtained after each iteration of the model calculations carried out to achieve the established level of deviation between the standardized resulting variables of the models.

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Development of modeling tools for the analysis and forecasting of the reliability of the Integrated Power System (IPS) of Ukraine

        Sector of Energy Development Projections (Department of Sectoral Forecasting and Market Conditions) has completed work on research project "Modeling and Economic Evaluation of the Measures to Ensure Reliable Operation of the Integrated Power System of Ukraine During Extension or Decommission of Nuclear Power Reactor Units"; Stage Two: "Development of Modeling Tools for the Analysis and Forecasting of the Reliability of the Integrated Power System (IPS) of Ukraine" (topic supervisor - Head of the Sector, Ph.D. R.Podolets).

         As a result of the completion of the research project, the working group, with the use of IAEA’s licensed modeling software "WASP-IV", created an applied optimization modeling tool “WASP-Ukraine” for the development, assessment and analysis of scenarios of long-term development of the generation capacities of the Ukrainian IPS with regard to ensuring the reliability of its operation. The tool provides a detailed account of the structure of generating capacities of Ukrainian IPS and the set of technical, economic and environmental parameters of its work, with the possibility to assign critical values of reserve capacities and aggregated indicators of the power system’s reliability.

          Using the developed modeling tool "WASP-Ukraine", the researchers carried out an experimental model run of the baseline scenario of the generating capacities of the Ukrainian IPS for the period up to 2030, taking into account the reliability of its operation, including the aggregated indicators of the loss-of-load probability (LOLP) and energy non supplied (ENS). The calculation results showed a sufficient level of adequacy of the model based estimates of the future structure of generating capacities, electricity generation and reliability of the Ukrainian IPS (excluding the modern force majeure in the power sector).

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