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Development of modeling tools for the analysis and forecasting of the reliability of the Integrated Power System (IPS) of Ukraine

This post is also available in: Ukrainian

        Sector of Energy Development Projections (Department of Sectoral Forecasting and Market Conditions) has completed work on research project “Modeling and Economic Evaluation of the Measures to Ensure Reliable Operation of the Integrated Power System of Ukraine During Extension or Decommission of Nuclear Power Reactor Units”; Stage Two: “Development of Modeling Tools for the Analysis and Forecasting of the Reliability of the Integrated Power System (IPS) of Ukraine” (topic supervisor – Head of the Sector, Ph.D. R.Podolets).

         As a result of the completion of the research project, the working group, with the use of IAEA’s licensed modeling software “WASP-IV”, created an applied optimization modeling tool “WASP-Ukraine” for the development, assessment and analysis of scenarios of long-term development of the generation capacities of the Ukrainian IPS with regard to ensuring the reliability of its operation. The tool provides a detailed account of the structure of generating capacities of Ukrainian IPS and the set of technical, economic and environmental parameters of its work, with the possibility to assign critical values of reserve capacities and aggregated indicators of the power system’s reliability.

          Using the developed modeling tool “WASP-Ukraine”, the researchers carried out an experimental model run of the baseline scenario of the generating capacities of the Ukrainian IPS for the period up to 2030, taking into account the reliability of its operation, including the aggregated indicators of the loss-of-load probability (LOLP) and energy non supplied (ENS). The calculation results showed a sufficient level of adequacy of the model based estimates of the future structure of generating capacities, electricity generation and reliability of the Ukrainian IPS (excluding the modern force majeure in the power sector).

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