This post is also available in: Ukrainian
A regular meeting of the scientific platform at the Ministry of Economy was held on July 29, 2024, where the results of new scientific research were presented. Developed scientifically based solutions were presented at the meeting by professional experts, representatives of leading scientific specialized institutions – SO “Institute for economics and forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine”, Institute of industrial economics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, SE “Ukrpromzovanshekspertiza” that contribute to the capacity of the government and society to meet today’s acute challenges, becoming the basis for implementing effective solutions, required for the recovery of the Ukrainian economy.
The discussion included a report by Doctor of Economics Vitaliy VENGER, the head of the Department of sectoral forecasts and market conditions of the SO “Institute for economics and forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine” entitled “Development of metal titanium production in Ukraine and prospects of integration into global added value chains” within the framework of the search and development of the TOP 10 investment projects to be implemented under the patronage of the first persons. The results of the study showed that the implementation of the project on the production of metal titanium products will provide macroeconomic and multiplier effects. In particular, it has been proven that the multiplier effect on the economy in general can ensure an average annual additional increase in the GDP of Ukraine at the level of 0.11–0.13 percentage points, and cumulatively for the first ten years of its activity, the contribution to the dynamics of the domestic GDP will be about 1.2– 1.5 p.p.
Calculations of the feasibility study of the investment project for the construction of a new plant for the metallic titanium products production showed that the project is attractive for investment for the state, domestic and foreign investors in terms of its prospects and profitability: the net present value is almost UAH 11.4 billion; internal rate of return – 17%; return on investment – more than 1.5; the profit-to-loss ratio will be 1.2; EBITDA – almost UAH 8.8 billion; the discounted payback period is almost 13 years. In addition, the implementation of the project will have positive effects for the socio-economic development of Ukraine during the entire period of its implementation: the creation of 3,500 qualitatively new jobs, the provision of significant tax revenues to the state and local budgets – 81 billion UAH, the budget multiplier – 9.2. This will contribute to the recovery of not only the titanium industry, but also provide powerful economic effects in related industries and will enable Ukraine to join global value-added chains and occupy niches in many promising markets – aviation, medical, transport, defense industry – which will have high growth rates in the medium-term annual growth.
The presentation caused a heated discussion. In particular, director of the SO “Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine”, academician of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Valery HEYETS emphasized the need to spread the technology of production of final products from titanium raw materials, which in the context of growing security threats, requires government attention to finding alternative ways to create new plants. Volodymyr VLASYUK (SE “Ukrpromzovshekspertiza”) supported the importance of activating the public-private partnership to modernize the titanium industry; Oleksandra BETLIY (Institute of Economic Research and Political Consultations) raised the issue of transparent privatization in the titanium industry. Serhii POVAZHNIUK emphasized the importance of attracting a strategic investor partner to launch titanium production facilities, mentioning the successful example of Kazakhstan.
Anatoly BURYLKO, Chief Specialist of the Development and Support Department eco-modernization of industry and import substitution The Department of Industrial Policy of the Ministry of Strategic Industries supported the importance of implementing strategic initiatives to restore the titanium industry, pointing to their support by a number of government regulations. At the same time, the economic mechanism for establishing a full cycle of titanium raw materials processing will increase the amount of profit received from 1 ton of titanium from 10 to 100 times.
Nataliya GORSHKOVA, PhD in Economics, Director of the Department of Strategic Planning and Macroeconomic Forecasting at the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine, envisioned the possibility of promoting this project by developing proposals for the realization of opportunities to attract strategic investors – leading global companies from different countries.
Head of the Department of monetary and credit relations of the SO “Institute for economics and forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine”, Doctor of Economics Yevhen BUBLYK presented the results of a study on the topic “Ways of involving banks in lending to the domestic economy”, where he noted that in the conditions of war and external crises, the decrease in the share of bank lending in Ukraine from 72% to 14% of GDP was caused by the uncertainty of government priorities for credit support, the discouraging effect of deposit certificates and government bonds on the credit market, weak lending activity of state-owned banks, as well as the shortcomings of the current NBU monetary policy model. In order to achieve the optimal level of credit support for the economy at 40-50% of GDP, the loan portfolio of banks should grow by 1.5-3.0% of GDP annually by 2035, and by UAH 270 billion in the first year.
In the conditions of war, such an increase in bank loans cannot be ensured by purely market mechanisms. The activation of bank lending will require the implementation of large-scale state targeted programs of preferential lending in the processing, mining, transport and IT sectors, which demonstrate the most favorable ratio of received loans and share in the country’s GDP. The conducted calculations proved the possibility of reducing state expenses by reducing the profitability of the part of the government bonds, which is already in the portfolio of the NBU and state banks. In 2024–2025, such savings may amount to about 125 billion UAH, and by 2037 – more than 700 billion UAH. Such a saved resource will make it possible to implement large-scale targeted credit programs, as well as contribute to the reduction of passive income of banks and the corresponding stimulation of their credit activity.
According to the agenda of the meeting, the results of their research were presented by: Yaroslav KRYL (Institute of Industrial Economics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Doctor of Economics, Director of “Voden Ukraine” LLC) – on the topic of “Development of hydrogen energy of Ukraine” as one of the TOP-10 investment projects , which should be implemented under the patronage of the first persons; Volodymyr VLASYUK, Director of SE “Ukrpromzovshekspertiza”, and Serhii POVAZHNYUK, Deputy Director for Development, on the topic “Purchase by Ukrzaliznytsia of domestic platforms for reloading during container transportation”; Volodymyr RYABOSHLYK (Ukrainian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs USPP, Kyiv Academic University KAU, Kyiv National University of Economics KNEU and NC NRUNT) – on the topic “Creating a market environment favorable for commercial lending on the basis of the achieved overcoming of inflation (from low inflation to low market rates) );
The published scientific results caused a lively discussion among the participants of the event, during which the importance and necessity of their quick practical implementation was emphasized. The joint creation of Ukraine’s future as a European democratic state is possible only through joint efforts at all levels: science – production – government.